NYT: Leon Panetta to be named CIA director.

Update: Former intelligence officials react to Panetta pick.

More reaction from Noah Shachtman and Jeff Stein.

New Foreign Policy. As I mentioned Friday, definitely check out the new Foreign Policy site, which relaunched today.

You can find (and bookmark) my reported daily, online column on foreign policy, The Cable. Today, I report on "transition purgatory," for those still in limbo about whether they will get a job in the new administration. "... But now, amid the information vacuum, conspiracy theories abound: 'It's Hillary's fault,' ... has been succeeded by 'It's Biden's fault,' referring to fears that prized White House slots will go to Biden loyalists and others from their network of Senate staffers rather than early members of Obama's foreign advisory teams. ..." My new colleague Stephen Walt argues that the names don't tell us as much as one might think.

On the site today: Former US Mideast envoy Aaron David Miller, author of one of the best recent books on US policy to the Mideast, The Too Much Promised Land, is blogging Gaza at one of the site's regular features, the Argument.

Veteran Washington Post Pentagon correspondent and "Fiasco" author Tom Ricks is blogging "the Best Defense" here.

Marc Lynch of Abu Aardvark fame today blogs Maliki in Tehran.

At Shadow Government, Philip Zelikow is blogging what Bush got wrong (and three things he got right.) ("Failure #2: Having developed a powerful diagnosis of global conditions and opportunities, the administration failed to develop a meaningful conception for global cooperation. ...") Other contributors, many out of the recent ranks of the Bush administration, to Shadow Government: Kori Schake, Steve Biegun, Peter Feaver, Vance Serchuk, etc., moderated by the "whip-smart" former Rice speechwriter and new Foreign Policy editor Christian Brose.

Counterinsurgency gurus ret. Ltn. Col. John Nagl and Nate Fick of the Center for a New American Security apply counterinsurgency lessons to Afghanistan.

NSC auteur David Rothkopf introduces his eponymous blog here, as do Dan Drezner and Stephen Walt.

Carolyn O'Hara rounds up Hillary news you might have missed at her blog, Madam Secretary. Joshua Keating is writing a daily morning brief news round up of international developments at FP's Passport.

Go check it out! Let me know what you think.

NYT: Many Middle East experts believe that Israel timed its move against Hamas with the expectation of receiving backing in Washington.

Obama arrives in Washington. From the latest pool report, filed by Politico's Nia-Malika Henderson:

President-elect Barack Obama arrived in DC at AFB at 7pm EST after leaving Midway airport at 4:45 pm CST.

He left his Hyde Park house at about 4pm and arrived at Midway about 30 minutes later.

As he boarded plane, he waved to press and said he would see us in DC. He came to back of plane and said the following:

"Well guys, I am looking forward to seeing you guys in Washington.....I gotta say I choked up a little bit leaving my house today." ... "Malia's friend had dropped off an album of the two of them together. They had been friends since pre-school and I just looked through the pages and the house was empty and it was a little tough, it got me."

He ordered a cheeseburger on the plane, which is a Boeing 757 with big leather seats. He met Col. Scott Turner, who will be his Air Force One pilot.

Obama said he had taken a government plane before. Said Michelle and the girls were "having fun" and that he was looking forward to going to Washington.

"Although living in a hotel for two weeks, we kind of did that for two years."

NYT: "Taken together, it suggests that even if Israel intends to hold back from completely overthrowing Hamas, its choice of assault tactics could head that way anyway. And the Israelis may already be facing a kind of mission creep: after all, if enough of Hamas’s infrastructure is destroyed, the prospect of governing Gaza, a densely populated, refugee-filled area whose weak economy has been devastated by the Israeli-led boycott, will be exceedingly difficult. ... At what human cost? And who will be in charge when it is all over?"

Foreign Policy. I'm very happy to announce that I am joining Foreign Policy magazine, which is launching an exciting new daily, online site starting Monday featuring a bunch of high-powered foreign policy and national security thinkers, writers, reporters and practitioners. Among them, long time Washington Post defense correspondent Tom Ricks, author of "Fiasco," who will be writing a daily blog, "The Best Defense," on all aspects of hard power; Arab world expert Marc Lynch of the excellent Abu Aardvark blog and George Washington University, and Daniel Drezner of the Fletcher School, are both moving their blogs to the site. Foreign Policy editor Carolyn O'Hara will closely observe all things Hillary (including the array of pants suits) in a new blog, Madam Secretary. Former Bush I NSC official, Rice counselor and 9/11 commission executive director Philip Zelikow, former Pentagon comptroller Dov Zakheim, former NSC official (and Palin foreign policy advisor) Steve Biegun, Bush-era NSC advisor Peter Feaver, and former Condi Rice speechwriter and current Foreign Policy editor Christian Brose will be blogging "the Shadow Government," unclassified for all of us civilians. Former Clinton administration official and NSC chronicler David Rothkopf will interpret the mysteries of Washington powerbrokers; and Harvard's Stephen Walt, author of "The Israel Lobby," will offer his Realist take on global affairs. Veteran Washington Post foreign correspondent and national editor Susan Glasser is executive-editing the whole thing, with help from Foreign Policy online editor Blake Hounshell, and deputy online editor Rebecca Frankel.

As for me, I will be reporting and writing a reported, scoopy online daily column, The Cable, on all things foreign policy.

It's a site we foreign policy junkies, and War and Piece readers, will want to check (at least) daily, and I will rely on your continued tips, insights, hallway gossip, draft memos, after-action reports, after-hours debriefs, and readership. I'm really thrilled to build on the work I've done, including with readers' considerable guidance here at War and Piece, and with the camaraderie and support of lots of great reporter, editor, and blogger colleagues, and insights from many foreign policy and security hands and interested onlookers, and look forward to information-sharing with you all at the new site. (War and Piece will go on, if at reduced capacity). I'll put up all the relevant links so you can easily navigate over when they go live, inshallah, on Monday.

Ha'aretz: IAF bombs Gaza mosque. "A senior Israeli military officer on Wednesday said jetfighters have carried out some 500 sorties against Hamas targets in Gaza. ... He said the targets included Hamas command posts, some 130 missile launch sites and anyone who could be carrying a weapon. Also hit was Hamas Islamic University, which he described as a weapons research facility. ...However, dozens of civilians have been killed in the offensive, along with some 200 Hamas policemen. ... A Palestinian medic was killed and two others wounded when an Israeli missile struck next to their ambulance during a clash east of Gaza City, Palestinians said. The IDF said it did not know of the incident. Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces has finished preparing for a ground operation in the Gaza Strip. However, it will not begin such an incursion until it receives the go-ahead from the government. On Tuesday, at least 30 Palestinians - including two sisters aged 5 and 12 - were killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza, and Palestinians fired more than 40 rockets on southern Israel by Tuesday evening. ... At least 390 Palestinians, including 36 children and nine women, have been killed by Israeli forces since Operation Cast Lead began on Saturday, according to Palestinian sources. According to Channel 2, 220 of those fatalities were members of Hamas."

"I Don't Recall." Suggested titles for Alberto Gonzales' new memoir?

NYT:

After four days of Israeli airstrikes on Gaza, an outpouring of popular anger is putting pressure on American allies in the Arab world and appears to be worsening divisions in the region.

The sharpest rhetorical attacks have been aimed at Egypt, which is widely seen as having aided the Israeli campaign by closing its border with Gaza.

But as major street demonstrations continued Tuesday from North Africa to Yemen, some marchers and opinion-makers also lashed out at other moderate Arab governments for failing to take a stronger stand. Syria and Iran, meanwhile, have drawn praise for their militancy. [...]

To some extent, the outrage has forged a sense of trans-sectarian unity, allowing militant Shiite figures like Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, to extend his influence in the Sunni Arab world, as he did during the 2006 war. ...

From one of the Obama news pool reports today:

President-elect Barack Obama deviated from his usual vacation workout routine today.

Rather than starting off the day with a workout at Marine Corps Base Hawaii, as he has every morning since he's been in Hawaii except Christmas Day, Obama instead traveled across the island to his alma mater to play basketball.

Obama's motorcade left his rented Kailua residence at 9:39 a.m. to begin the trip over the Pali Highway to Honolulu.

As his motorcade left the Kailua compound, a small throng of demonstrators had grown to about 10, waving signs that read, among other things: "No U.S. support for Israel," Free Palestine" and "Gazans need food, medicine, not war."

Obama was sitting in the rear on the passenger side of his black sport-utility vehicle, and was not visible to the protesters, who were on the left side of the vehicle as it exited. Obama was wearing a baseball cap (the insignia wasn't clear), sipped from a bottle of water and looked straight ahead as the vehicle passed the demonstrators. He did not acknowledge them.

On the opposite side of the street from the demonstrators were a handful of onlookers, with one group of four sporting Punahou attire and holding a sign reading: "We love you Obama Ohana." (Ohana is the Hawaiian word for family.)

The motorcade arrived at Punahou School at 10:19 a.m. The vehicles were met by a few hundred students, parents and administrators at the private school, which is on its winter break. ...

Obama is coming to Washington a couple of weeks early to accommodate his two young daughters, who are to start school at the private Sidwell Friends in Washington next week.

The 44th president likely will be staying in a Washington hotel at least until Jan. 15 , when he moves into Blair House, the official residence for visiting dignitaries located across the street from the White House.

Obama had wanted to move up his stay at Blair House, but was told by the Bush White House that pre-scheduled receptions prevented him from moving in early.

"Tells you what a tony place it is - you can't get in!'' said David Axelrod, the president-elect's chief strategist.

NYT: US pushing for Gaza ceasefire. Won't confirm backing 48 hour pause. "The United States is pressing Israel to call a cease-fire in its assault on Hamas militants in Gaza, officials said Tuesday, while enlisting Arab countries to press Hamas to do the same. The intensive diplomacy is being led by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who made a flurry of phone calls over the last 24 hours to Israeli and Arab leaders. The goal, said a State Department spokesman, Gordon Duguid, is a 'reliable cease-fire, one that is durable and sustainable.' ... With diplomatic efforts still under way, the State Department did not confirm reports in Israel that Washington was seeking a 48-hour cease-fire that would allow relief supplies to be delivered to stricken areas in Gaza. The pause would also give Hamas a last chance to stop its attacks.”

Some analysis in the Israeli press is expressing more cautiousness and skepticism about the direction of the Gaza operation today. Essentially the gist seems to be that Israel has been using heavy air strikes to get a political goal - a ceasefire on its terms with a significant reduction in rocket attacks if not bringing them to zero (which IDF army chief of staff Gazi Ashkenazi thinks is unrealistic), in exchange for Gaza (still controlled by Hamas) possibly getting eventually less restrictive border crossings. Israeli press reports are suggesting that the air strikes are essentially running out of targets, that they are softening for possible ground incursion or that that could be a bluff if they can get the cease-fire they want in advance of that. If Israeli political and military leaders don't overreach and forget what their goal is, some journalists and commentators are today warning. See the Nahum Barnea and Ha'aretz analyses below. Barnea: " ... The problem is that politicians tend to forget who they're trying to trick, the enemy or their people. What begins as a deception ruse for the enemy ends with self-deception. ... With all the enthusiasm over the black smoke forming over Gaza, they tend to forget the operation's goal: Forcing Hamas to agree to a cease-fire on terms that Israel is willing to meet. That is the goal that Olmert, Livni and Barak and the overwhelming majority of Israelis agree on: Not occupation and not toppling. The moment that Hamas agrees to a cease-fire, the operation is supposed to end. This is also a lesson that should have been learned from the mistakes of 2006: In war, you have to know how to end on time."

A well known Arab American analyst in Washington who asked to speak on background offered this analysis on the regional and domestic politics of the Gaza conflict from an Arab perspective:

There are two domestic agendas here. The Israeli one is very familiar... But what people are not asking and is at least as important: what are the f**** rocket firers hoping to do? ... If you look at what people are saying, there is a disconnect between what Haniyah and people in Gaza are saying, and what Nasrallah and Meshal and regional actors say. ... The Hamas leadership in Gaza is saying, we want a ceasefire on our terms. What Nasrallah and Meshal and Iran are saying: Egyptians, rise up ... What’s missing in every analysis I see is that Egypt is the prize, the low hanging fruit ...

Sketch out the regional scenario: two unsympathetic forces hinged by Hamas. You have the Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Iraqi Islamist parties on the one hand, on one side of the hinge. ... And you’ve got the Muslim Brotherhood regional project for overthrowing [moderate Arab regime] governments on the other.

The hinge is Hamas. Because Hamas is a core member of Leninist-style collection of national Muslim Brotherhood parties. It is also the only Sunni member of the pro Iranian alliance because of the money it gets through Khaled Meshal. Hamas is a hinge, Syria is a hinge. You've got Meshal in Damascus who gets lots of money from Iran. Hamas is not neutral in the moderate Arab regimes vs. Iranian alliance rivalry.

Both stand to benefit here. One project advances [unrest] in Egypt to the benefit of the Muslim Brotherhood. And while that is not something to be overjoyed for for Nasrallah, it's very helpful if it advances the Islamist agenda to destabilize your enemies.

It's limited ultimately. It's very unlikely to result in direct destabilization of Egypt. But they shoot for it, and hope that it contributes to the discreditation of all the [moderate, pro American] Arab regimes [egypt, jordan, saudi arabia] and in that sense, shows that there is an authentic movement in the region that has two manifestations, the Iranians and the Muslim Brotherhood, who are resistant to the regional order and the status quo. ...

What you end up with here are two groups of political actors with domestic and internal motivations that largely don’t have to do with Gaza. And they are using the lives of these people like casino chips...

Ha'aretz:

....Israel has thus far refused to officially discuss a cease-fire, but in practice it is conducting an indirect and hesitant dialogue with Hamas. As of yet, however, there is no official mediator.

Khaled Meshal, the Damascus-based head of Hamas' political bureau, has been calling for a cease-fire for two days now. However, communications with the organization's leadership in Gaza are hampered because all its leaders have gone underground for fear of Israeli assassination attempts, while Israel's air strikes have disrupted the Strip's communications networks. Paradoxically, the same measures that have hampered Hamas' military response are also impeding efforts to end the fighting.

Israel will insist that any truce include a complete, long-term halt to the rocket fire from Gaza. In exchange, it will apparently agree to reopen the border crossings at some point, though no final decisions have been made. ...

The diplomatic clock is ticking relatively slowly because both Europe and the United States are all but closed for Christmas and New Year's Day. Meshal has been trying to get the Arab League and Senegal, which holds the rotating chairmanship of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, to push for a cease-fire. So far, international criticism of Israel has been relatively muted despite the many Palestinian casualties. Even in the Arab world, not everyone is crying over Hamas' losses. ...

Nahum Barnea in Yediot Ahronoth, Remember 2006

... I would like to believe that Barak is talking about the fighting lasting a long time only in order to convince Hamas that Israel did not embark on this operation holding a stopwatch. The more Hamas is convinced that Israel has no time limitations, the quicker it will be to ask for a cease-fire. Declarations about the operation continuing are psychological warfare.

The problem is that politicians tend to forget who they’re trying to trick, the enemy or their people. What begins as a deception ruse for the enemy ends with self-deception. As the chairman of the Labor Party, the last thing that Barak wants are elections on their set date. ...When Menahem Begin ordered the Iraqi nuclear reactor bombed in 1981 what he wanted, firstly, was to destroy the nuclear threat against Israel. He also wanted to save himself in the elections. Two problems were solved with one military blow.

Continue reading ""

Posted by Laura at 06:21 AM

Rick Perlstein on Philip Agee.

Israeli writer and peace activist David Grossman, whose son was killed in the 2006 Lebanon conflict: "Hold your fire. Try for once to act against the usual response, in contrast to the lethal logic of belligerence. There will always be a chance to start firing again. War, as Barak said about two weeks ago, will not run away. International support for Israel will not be damaged, and will even grow, if we show calculated restraint and invite the international and Arab community to intervene and mediate."